I am a Postdoctoral Fellow at the School of Social Policy & Practice at the University of Pennsylvania. I use applied microeconomics and causal inference to study questions in environmental and labor economics. My current focus is climate adaptation in the workplace, and I am the Lead for Labor Markets Research at Penn’s Center for Climate Resilience. I hold a PhD in Environment and Sustainability from the University of California, Los Angeles.

I am on the 2026-2027 job market.

Email: paul.stainier@sp2.upenn.edu

Job Market Paper

Abstract

In the presence of labor market failures, workers may have financial incentives that penalize safety. This paper studies how failing to account for this incentive problem may result in ineffective safety interventions. We evaluate a policy introduced to curb excessive driving in trucking, an industry in which workplace accidents often generate a public safety externality. The policy inadvertently heightened the payoff for other unsafe driving practices, such as speeding, including during unsafe weather. Using data on 1.4 million truck crashes across the continental United States, we first show that truck crashes increase by 150 to 220 percent on days with icy weather. Leveraging the fact that the policy was binding for only a subset of truckers, we find that it led those truckers to experience 7 percent more crashes in icy conditions relative to a no-policy counterfactual. We then descriptively consider how alternative policy measures might affect safety and aggregate social welfare.